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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Chilly Thursday Morning [ Local Stories]

40% chance tropical development for a trough of low pressure over South Mexico that is causing disorganized showers and storms. This disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche late Wednesday. Strong low pressure will move towards North Central Gulf Friday. Depression or tropical storm possible. There is the potential for gusty winds, locally heavy rain and high tides depending on where the system moves onshore.

The GFS Model shows a broad low south of the Louisiana Coast Friday with heavy rain along the coast, and a strong onshore flow. The wind will cause tides to increase. Coastal flood issues would develop. Model indicated broad low would move onshore near Apalachicola, Florida.

The EURO Model is different. It shows low pressure east of Brownsville Friday night with strong east winds over South Louisiana, and heavy rain mainly offshore. Saturday morning low pressure is south of Lake Charles. We have a strong onshore flow with increasing rain over South Louisiana, South Mississippi and South Alabama into West Florida. Saturday night the low moves onshore at Marsh Island with rain and wind continuing over Southeast Louisiana into Florida.

So these models are very different, but do show impacts for us.

A strong cold front moves through Monday with cooler weather for Tuesday.

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