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Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Sunny weekend [ Local Stories]

A tropical wave over the West Central Caribbean has a 70% chance for tropical development. A broad low is forecast to develop over the next couple of days, and a depression may form over the weekend. Water temperatures are in the upper 80s in the NW Caribbean. Winds in the South Gulf are strong out of the SW. GFS forecast model develops the system and moves it towards the Yucatan Channel and then into the South Gulf. It hangs out there for a day or so, then moves towards the SW Gulf.

There is a 20% chance tropical development for a tropical wave East of the Lesser Antilles. It is forecast to move across the Caribbean where water temperatures are warm. The GFS model takes it into the Gulf of Mexico, but the latest run is not as bullish. Water temperatures in the North Gulf are in the low to mid 80s. Recent tropical systems have modified the water temps so they are not as hot.

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