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Thursday, October 15, 2020

Cloudy and breezy Friday morning [ Local Stories]

NOAA is out with the Winter Season forecast for November through January. We have a La Nina. That means cool water in the East Tropical South Pacific. A la Nina generally means warmer than average for our area, and drier than average.

La Nina is a big player in the Hurricane Season. This year we have a la Nina and warm water in the tropical Atlantic. We have had 25 named storms, 9 became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes. We are now watching two areas with a low chance tropical development. 30% chance development for a a low expected to develop SE of Bermuda, and eventually moves to the NE in the Atlantic. There is a 20% chance tropical development for a low in the SW Caribbean. Eventually the GFS Model takes an area of low pressure towards Cuba and the Bahamas. It looks like an elongated area of Low pressure. The European Model is not bullish on this system.

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from Local Stories

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